Clarksburg, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

207
FXUS61 KRLX 041637
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1237 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A quasi-stationary frontal system brings showers and storms at
times through the weekend, with flooding increasingly likely for
the Mid-Ohio Valley region. Dry weather finally returns Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Friday...

Repetitive rounds of training showers and elevated storms have
formed across the area this morning along and just south of a
stalled frontal boundary, which currently resides generally
along a line from KHTS to KCKB, as high moisture content air
continues to be pumped into the area, with a wave moving along
the front this morning enhancing activity. This has resulted in
a solid inch to inch and a quarter or rain, particularly across
the southern coal fields and western zones overnight/this
morning. With additional rounds of showers and storms expected
later this afternoon before the frontal boundary lifts north,
and with the ongoing event, the office has elected to expand the
flood watch in both coverage and duration.

Otherwise, no significant changes were necessary at this time,
other than did elect to drop high temperatures today across the
north slightly from inherited forecast as feel boundary will be
slow to move, leaving much of that area cooler under northerly
flow. After initial wave moves east we may see a brief decrease
in the precipitation coverage later this morning/early
afternoon, before additional storms form later this afternoon
and evening. Some of which could be strong with a damaging wind
threat.


As of 640 AM Friday...

Radar imagery shows numerous showers with embedded
thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, moving east across NE KY,
SE OH and most parts of WV this morning. Expect this activity to
diminish in coverage by mid morning or early afternoon as the
stationary frontal boundary oscillates north later this
afternoon and evening. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 235 AM Friday...

Key Points:

 * Frontal boundary stalls over the southern WV coalfields through
Friday night promoting periods of moderate to heavy rain.

 * Flooding risk continues through the weekend amid additional
rainfall on top of already saturated soils.

Frontal boundary has returned southeast as a cold front,
pushing areas of moderate to heavy rain across NE Kentucky, SE
Ohio and W West Virginia late overnight into early Friday
morning. These areas have received widespread 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall during the last 24 hours. Several creek and small
streams have experienced rapid raises in water levels, and some
others have reached minor and moderate flood stages. Additional
rainfall (1 to 2 inches) will deteriorate existing flooding
concerns. Flood warnings across the area will likely need to be
extended in time to account for the incoming rainfall over
already saturated soils. A slight risk for excessive rainfall
exists through 8 AM Friday morning. A flash flood watch remains
in effect through Sunday.

Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers with embedded
thunderstorms moving east across the OH River at the moment of
writing. This rainfall activity will persist across the Tri-
state area and central and southern WV through this afternoon.

There may be a lull in showers and storms as the frontal
boundary stalls across the southern WV coalfields this
afternoon, but another punch of showers and strong
thunderstorms will be possible over the same area by 5 PM
Friday. Guidance suggests rainfall continuing into Friday night
with additional shortwaves.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1236 PM Friday...

The main cold front will cross the region Sunday morning, and the
last round of rain will push across the region from west to east. An
additional inch of rain is expected to fall areawide Sunday, with
slightly higher amounts across southeast Ohio. This can continue to
bring flooding issues, which is why the Flood Watch has been
extended through Sunday evening. There is a limited severe weather
threat Sunday as well, mainly for damaging wind gusts. Instability
will be very limited Sunday, but wind shear will remain plentiful,
and downpours can bring strong winds aloft down to the surface.

In addition, a few river basins are forecast to reach either minor
or moderate flood stage Sunday across southeast Ohio. This includes
the Muskingum River at Beverly and the Hocking River at Athens.
These water rises are all due to runoff from recent rainfall.

Sunday`s temperature gradient will be large from northwest to
southeast. Temperatures will only reach the 40s across southeast
Ohio Sunday, while temperatures across portions of southern West
Virginia and southwest Virginia reach the lower 60s ahead of the
cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1237 PM Friday...

Rises are expected on portions of the Ohio River Sunday night into
Monday, with minor to moderate flood stage currently being forecast
at some locations. With dry weather expected early next week, these
waters should gradually recede either late Monday or Tuesday.

High pressure will finally build back into the region Monday after
several days of very wet weather. Chilly weather will return for
Monday and Tuesday in a post frontal airmass, with highs only
expected to reach the 50s Monday and the 40s Tuesday. Overnight lows
in the 20s are expected Monday night and Tuesday night. Any
sensitive plants that are currently outside should be brought inside
during this time.

Temperatures will moderate back to the 60s by Wednesday and Thursday
as a ridge moves back over the Ohio Valley. The next chance of
precipitation will arrive late in the week as an upper-level low
develops over the area. There is low confidence in the forecast for
late next week due to model disagreement.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Friday...

Quasi-stationary frontal boundary has moved along the southern
coalfields of WV early this morning. A cluster of thunderstorms is
likely to affect BKW early this morning, followed by scattered
showers. Precipitation activity is expected to diminish in coverage
this afternoon as the frontal boundary lifts north as a warm front.

MVFR ceilings under low stratus should develop after showers and
storms. Otherwise, conditions will gradually improve outside storms
or showers through this afternoon. However, another batch of
convection is suggested by CAMs guidance to lift north with the warm
front, spreading convection once again across SE OH, NE KY and
western WV by this evening. Brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions
possible under heavy or moderate rain.

Models do show a bit of a break after 16Z Friday, but deteriorating
conditions will return with another round of heavy showers moving
into the area this evening into Saturday.

Variable to calm winds early this morning will have a northerly
component north of the front, and southwesterly south of the front.
Heavy rain and strong gusty winds will accompany the stronger
storms.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of
thunderstorms and heavy rain may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    L

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms tonight
through Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040-517-519>522-525-526.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ